Macro Events — May 15, 2026

Us Stock Market

U.S. stocks had a choppy week, starting with a dip on Monday after inflation hit a three-year high of 3.8%, driven by rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Tech stocks then powered a sharp rebound by Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh record highs as AI companies issued strong forecasts, Cisco jumped 15% on earnings, and the government approved chip exports to Chinese firms. By Friday, futures pulled back as investors locked in gains, while ongoing Middle East tensions and the 10-year bond interest rate climbing above 4.5% kept pressure on the market.

Oil Price

Oil prices climbed sharply this week, with Brent crude reaching $107.50 per barrel and posting a gain of more than 6%, as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed after U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed and Washington imposed fresh sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Shrinking global oil stockpiles, which fell by about 4 million barrels per day in March and April, added further pressure, with energy forecasters warning the market could stay severely undersupplied through October. The surge rippled worldwide, driving up fuel costs from India to Peru, pushing inflation higher, and leading investors to bet that central banks in Europe, Japan, and elsewhere will be forced to raise interest rates.

Natural Gas Price

Natural gas prices rose sharply on both sides of the Atlantic this week, driven by different forces. In Europe and the UK, the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, disrupting roughly one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas supply and pushing European prices up more than 10% and UK prices up more than 11% to five-week highs. In the US, prices hit a seven-week high near $2.92 per MMBtu as producers like EQT cut back drilling in response to weak prices, dropping daily output to a 15-week low, though prices dipped midweek when export flows to terminals fell from April's record levels.

Gold Price

Gold fell about 1% for the week to near $4,650 an ounce, dragged down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high or even raise them. The chain started with the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which choked off energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up oil prices and pushing U.S. inflation to its fastest pace in years. That hotter inflation convinced traders the Fed won't cut rates anytime soon, which boosted the dollar and made gold, which pays no interest, less attractive by comparison.

Bond Yield

The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, which fed into the sharpest wholesale inflation reading since 2022 and the biggest jump in consumer prices since 2023. That inflation surge drove the interest paid on the 10-year U.S. government bond above 4.5%, its highest level in a year, as traders dropped all bets on rate cuts and started pricing in a possible rate increase by December. President Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal and talk of resuming military operations added further pressure, signaling that elevated energy costs and inflation could stick around.

Us Economy

The Iran conflict and the resulting blockade in the Persian Gulf pushed energy prices higher, which drove U.S. consumer inflation to 3.8% in April, its highest level since mid-2023, while wholesale inflation hit its fastest pace since 2022. Those hotter-than-expected price readings pushed the interest rate on 10-year government bonds above 4.5% and led traders to start betting the Federal Reserve might raise rates by year-end instead of cutting them. Despite the inflation pressure, stocks still climbed to record highs midweek, powered by strong AI company forecasts and solid retail sales, before pulling back Friday as investors locked in gains.

China Economy

Rising oil prices from the Iran conflict pushed up global inflation fears, which poses a challenge for China's economy as energy costs climb. At the same time, strong manufacturing activity in China boosted demand for aluminum, helping push prices near a four-year high. China's recent surge in local government borrowing for infrastructure projects added to that demand, as construction uses large amounts of aluminum.

Europe Economy

Military strikes and stalled negotiations involving Iran pushed oil prices higher this week, sending inflation climbing across Europe. France's inflation hit 2.2%, its highest since mid-2024, while Germany's reached 2.9%, and Eurozone growth slowed to just 0.1% for the first quarter as energy disruptions weighed on output. Investors now expect multiple interest rate hikes from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this year, which drove government borrowing costs in the UK to levels not seen since 2008 and pushed the euro to a one-month low against the dollar.