Macro Events — May 1, 2026

Us Stock Market

U.S. stocks had a choppy week but ended strong, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs by Thursday. Early losses came from rising oil prices after U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed, a report that OpenAI missed its own growth targets, and the Federal Reserve holding rates steady with some officials pushing back against future cuts. The turnaround was driven by a strong batch of corporate earnings, with companies like Alphabet and Amazon posting big beats, though Meta dropped sharply after announcing a surge in AI-related spending that spooked investors about future costs.

Oil Price

Oil prices climbed sharply this week, with U.S. crude rising nearly 15% and holding above $105 per barrel, as the U.S. maintained its naval blockade of Iranian ports, peace talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed, and the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, cutting off a major route for global oil shipments. Falling U.S. stockpiles and record American oil exports added to the pressure by signaling that global supplies are running thin. Prices pulled back slightly on Friday in what appeared to be a temporary dip, but the week still marked a second straight weekly gain as analysts warned that some countries could soon face serious oil shortages.

Natural Gas Price

Natural gas prices moved in different directions depending on the region. In Europe, prices swung between drops and a three-week high as traders reacted to Iran's peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by President Trump's rejection of the deal and signals of a prolonged blockade, which keeps roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply cut off. In the U.S., prices initially fell near an 18-month low as warm spring weather built up storage, but then bounced to a three-week high after production cuts by major drillers and record-high LNG exports tightened supply.

Gold Price

Gold had a mixed but volatile week, first dropping more than 2% to a one-month low around $4,550 as stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks pushed oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and expectations that central banks would keep interest rates elevated longer, which made gold less attractive since it pays no interest. Prices then rebounded toward $4,600 later in the week after the U.S. dollar weakened sharply following reports of Japanese currency market intervention, and renewed fears of U.S. military action against Iran revived demand for gold as a safety asset. The tug-of-war between rising energy costs keeping rates high and a falling dollar plus geopolitical anxiety left gold roughly flat by week's end, still on track for a second straight weekly decline.

Bond Yield

The interest paid on U.S. 10-year government bonds climbed to a one-month high near 4.45% early in the week as Middle East conflict kept oil prices elevated, fueling fears that stubborn inflation would force the Fed to keep rates high. The Fed then held rates steady on Wednesday in a split decision, with three officials pushing back against any future rate cuts, which pushed bond interest rates even higher. By Thursday, a pullback in oil prices gave bonds some relief, pulling rates back below 4.4%, though they remained sharply above where they started the year.

Us Economy

The U.S. economy grew at a 2% annual pace in the first quarter, with strong spending on artificial intelligence offsetting a slowdown in consumer spending caused by high gas prices. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but revealed sharp internal disagreements, with four officials dissenting for the first time since 1992, as the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy prices elevated and pushes inflation higher. Stocks still hit record highs by the end of the week, powered by strong corporate earnings from companies like Alphabet and Amazon, even as the dollar dropped about 1% after Japan stepped in to boost its own currency.

China Economy

China's economy sent mixed signals this week. Factory activity grew faster than expected in April as manufacturers rushed to ship goods overseas before Middle East conflict costs climbed further, which helped support copper prices. At the same time, iron ore prices fell after Chinese steelmakers gained access to previously blocked stockpiles from BHP, and government efforts to rein in industrial overcapacity raised concerns about weakening demand ahead.

Europe Economy

The Middle East conflict disrupted energy supplies to Europe, dragging first-quarter economic growth down to just 0.1% and pushing inflation up to 3%, its highest since late 2023. The European Central Bank held rates steady but openly debated raising them, with markets now expecting three rate increases this year as oil prices surged to four-year highs on fears of escalating U.S. military action against Iran. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in over three years as households faced rising prices, weaker finances, and growing economic uncertainty.