What drives US bond yields?
Treasury yields reflect where markets think rates, inflation, and growth are heading. Each row traces a chain of real events that pushed yields higher or lower, month by month.
What's driving markets right now — the full picture, every 3 days. Fast, free.
Sign upMAY 1 – MAY 31, 2026
MAY 20
Closed: −2.04%
🇺🇸 Diplomatic Negotiation Progress
2026-05-20
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-20
Progress in US-Iran talks reduces geopolitical risk and inflation fears, lowering demand for safe-haven bonds.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
🇮🇷 Military Strike
2026-05-18
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-18
Initial attacks in the Iran war drove oil and gas prices sharply higher.
BOND PRICE ▼
2026-05-20
High energy prices raise inflation fears, leading to expected Fed rate hikes, which lowers bond prices.
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BOND PRICE ▼
🇺🇸 Military Strike Threat
2026-05-20
🇮🇷 Geopolitical Tension Rise
2026-05-20
Trump's threat to resume strikes on Iran escalates geopolitical tensions.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-20
Rising US-Iran tensions increased uncertainty, pushing investors toward safe-haven US Treasuries, raising yields.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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🇺🇸 Military Strike Threat
2026-05-15
🕌 Geopolitical Tension Rise
2026-05-15
Trump's threat to Iran raised fears of conflict, increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
BOND PRICE ▼
2026-05-20
Escalating Middle East tensions caused fears of inflation, leading investors to sell bonds.
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BOND PRICE ▼
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MAY 19
Closed: +0.95%
🇮🇷 Conflict Escalation
2026-05-11
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-11
Conflict escalation disrupts oil supply, raising energy prices globally.
🇺🇸 Inflation Rise
2026-05-15
Higher energy costs increase production and transportation expenses, pushing up overall prices.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-19
Higher inflation expectations lead investors to demand higher yields on bonds.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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MAY 18
Closed: +0.61%
🇺🇸 Negotiation Progress
2026-05-18
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-18
Progress in US-Iran negotiations reduced safe-haven demand, causing Treasury yields to slip.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
MAY 15
Closed: +3.0%
🇺🇸 Inflation Concern
2026-05-15
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-15
Inflation concerns make bonds less attractive, pushing yields up.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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🇮🇷 Conflict Escalation
2026-05-11
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-11
Conflict escalation disrupts oil supply, raising energy prices globally.
🇺🇸 Inflation Rise
2026-05-15
Higher energy costs increase production and transportation expenses, pushing up overall prices.
🇺🇸 Interest Rate Rise Expectation
2026-05-15
Rising inflation leads to expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-15
Expectations of higher interest rates pushed US Treasury yields higher.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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MAY 14
Closed: −0.45%
🇺🇸 Inflation Data Release
2026-05-14
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-14
Fresh inflation data showed accelerating price pressures, pushing Treasury yields higher.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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MAY 13
Closed: +0.4%
🇮🇷 Military Strike
2026-05-12
🌍 Oil Price Rise
2026-05-12
Higher crude oil prices from the Iran war pushed energy costs up, raising inflation.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-13
Higher oil prices increase inflation, leading investors to expect the Fed to raise rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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🇮🇷 Conflict Escalation
2026-05-11
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-11
Conflict escalation disrupts oil supply, raising energy prices globally.
🇺🇸 Inflation Rise
2026-05-13
Higher fuel costs increase production and transportation expenses, pushing up overall prices.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-13
Rising inflation pressures lead investors to expect the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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MAY 12
Closed: +1.2%
🇺🇸 Ceasefire Doubt
2026-05-12
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-12
Ceasefire doubt raises inflation fears, pushing bond yields higher.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
🇮🇷 Conflict Escalation
2026-05-11
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-11
Conflict escalation disrupts oil supply, raising energy prices globally.
🌍 Inflation Expectation Rise
2026-05-12
Elevated energy prices increase inflation fears, leading to expectations of central bank rate hikes.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-12
Higher oil prices from conflict increase inflation risks, leading to expectations of higher interest rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
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MAY 11
Closed: +1.05%
🇮🇷 Conflict Escalation
2026-05-11
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-11
Conflict escalation raises energy prices and bond yields due to supply disruption fears.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
MAY 8
Closed: −0.64%
🕌 Geopolitical Uncertainty
2026-05-08
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-08
Middle East uncertainty made investors seek safe assets, pushing Treasury yields down.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
🇺🇸 Employment Rise
2026-05-08
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-08
Strong employment data supports hawkish Fed policy, increasing expectations of an interest rate hike.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
🇺🇸 Military Strike
2026-05-05
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-05
Fresh US-Iran attacks in the Middle East raised uncertainty, keeping energy prices elevated.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-08
Higher energy prices increase inflation, leading to expectations of Fed rate hikes.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
🇮🇷 Military Strike
2026-05-04
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-04
Missile strikes in the Middle East disrupt oil supply, pushing energy prices higher.
🇺🇸 Inflation Rise
2026-05-04
Higher energy prices increase production and transportation costs, leading to higher overall prices.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-08
Higher core inflation and surging energy prices increase expectations of a Fed interest rate hike.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
MAY 6
Closed: −1.36%
🇺🇸 War De-Escalation
2026-05-06
🌍 Oil Price Decline
2026-05-06
De-escalation reduced supply disruption fears, causing oil prices to ease.
🇺🇸 Inflation Expectation Decline
2026-05-06
Oil prices fell, reducing inflation concerns and expectations of Fed rate hikes.
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-06
Falling oil prices eased inflation fears, leading to lower bond yields.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▼
🇺🇸 War De-Escalation
2026-05-06
🌍 Oil Price Decline
2026-05-06
De-escalation reduced supply disruption fears, causing oil prices to ease.
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-06
A sharp drop in oil prices reduced inflation concerns, causing the 10-year yield to fall.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▼
🇺🇸 Labor Market Tightness
2026-05-06
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-06
A strong labor market raises expectations of Fed rate hikes, pushing Treasury yields up.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-06
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for mortgages, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-06
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
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🇺🇸 Geopolitical Agreement Optimism
2026-05-06
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-06
Optimism over a US-Iran deal lowered oil prices and inflation expectations, reducing bond yields.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
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MAY 5
Closed: −0.67%
🇺🇸 Military Strike
2026-05-05
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-05
Fresh US-Iran attacks in the Middle East raised uncertainty, keeping energy prices elevated.
🇺🇸 Inflation Expectation Rise
2026-05-05
Higher energy prices raise costs, fueling fears of broader inflation.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-05
Higher energy prices raise inflation expectations, leading to expectations of Fed rate hikes.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-13
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for lenders, who pass them on as higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-15
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for home loans.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
🕌 War De-Escalation
2026-05-05
🌍 Oil Price Decline
2026-05-05
De-escalation reduces oil supply disruption fears, pushing oil prices lower.
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-05
Falling oil prices reduce inflation fears, leading to lower bond yields.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▼
MAY 4
Closed: +1.55%
🇮🇷 Military Strike
2026-05-04
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-05-04
Missile strikes in the Middle East disrupt oil supply, pushing energy prices higher.
🌍 Inflation Expectation Rise
2026-05-04
Higher energy prices increase production costs, raising inflation expectations.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-05-04
Higher energy prices increase inflation risks, making the Fed more likely to raise rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-05-06
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs for mortgages, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-06
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
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MAY 1
Closed: −0.27%
🇮🇷 Diplomatic Negotiation Progress
2026-05-01
🌍 Oil Price Decline
2026-05-01
Iran's response to peace deal amendments raised hopes of increased oil supply, pushing prices down.
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-05-01
Lower oil prices reduce inflation fears, leading investors to expect lower interest rates.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▼
APR 1 – APR 30, 2026
APR 30
Closed: −0.18%
🌍 Energy Price Decline
2026-04-30
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-04-30
Lower energy prices reduce inflation expectations, leading to lower bond yields.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
🕌 Military Conflict
2026-04-28
🌍 Oil Price Rise
2026-04-28
Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz closure disrupt oil supply, pushing prices higher.
🇺🇸 Interest Rate Hold
2026-04-29
Rising oil prices increased economic uncertainty, leading the Fed to hold rates steady.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-30
The Fed left rates unchanged, signaling higher rates for longer, pushing US Treasury yields up.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
APR 29
Closed: +1.08%
🇺🇸 Trade Talk Uncertainty
2026-04-29
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-29
Stalled US-Iran negotiations keep inflation concerns high, pushing Treasury yields up.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
🇺🇸 Military Strike
2026-04-24
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-04-24
Military strike threats and blockades disrupt oil supply, pushing energy prices higher.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-29
Higher energy prices push central banks toward tighter policy, raising expectations of rate hikes.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
APR 28
Closed: +0.76%
🕌 Middle East Uncertainty
2026-04-28
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-28
Middle East uncertainty raises oil prices, fueling inflation fears that push Treasury yields higher.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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🇺🇸 Interest Rate Decision Anticipation
2026-04-28
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-28
Investors bought bonds ahead of the Fed meeting, pushing yields higher.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
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🇺🇸 Vessel Seizure
2026-04-20
🇮🇷 Military Strike
2026-04-20
The US seized an Iranian vessel, so Iran retaliated with drone strikes.
🌍 Oil Price Rise
2026-04-23
The Iran war lifted fuel costs, increasing global fuel prices.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-28
Rising oil prices rekindled fears of inflation, pushing Treasury yields higher.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
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APR 24
Closed: −0.3%
🇺🇸 Military Strike
2026-04-24
🌍 Energy Price Rise
2026-04-24
Military strike threats and blockades disrupt oil supply, pushing energy prices higher.
🇺🇸 Inflation Rise
2026-04-24
Higher oil prices increase costs for goods and transport, pushing overall prices up.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-24
Inflation risks from Middle East tensions push bond yields higher as investors demand compensation.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
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APR 23
Closed: +0.68%
🇮🇷 Vessel Seizure
2026-04-23
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-23
Iran's seizure of vessels dimmed agreement hopes, limiting growth optimism and lifting benchmark interest rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
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APR 22
Closed: +0.05%
🇺🇸 Economic Data Improvement
2026-04-22
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-22
Stronger economic data reduces need for rate cuts, pushing bond yields higher.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
APR 21
Closed: +0.99%
🇺🇸 Tax Refund Rise
2026-04-21
🇺🇸 Retail Sales Rise
2026-04-21
Larger tax refunds gave consumers more money to spend in stores.
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-21
Higher retail sales signal a stronger economy, which can lead to higher interest rates and Treasury yields.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
🇺🇸 Employment Rise
2026-04-21
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-21
Strong employment data signals a resilient economy, pushing bond yields higher.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
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TREASURY YIELD ▲
🇺🇸 Peace Agreement Expectation
2026-04-21
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-04-21
Hopes for a US-Iran peace deal lowered inflation fears, reducing the appeal of higher bond yields.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Interest Rate Decline
2026-04-22
Lower Treasury yields reduce the cost for lenders to fund mortgages, allowing them to offer lower rates to borrowers.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
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APR 20
Closed: +0.09%
🇺🇸 Military Strike
2026-04-20
TREASURY YIELD ▲
2026-04-20
Military strikes increase inflation fears, making government bonds less attractive and pushing yields higher.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Rate Rise
2026-04-29
Higher Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, leading to higher mortgage rates.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Application Decline
2026-05-01
Higher mortgage rates make borrowing more expensive, reducing demand for mortgages.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▲
↓
APR 17
Closed: −1.46%
🇺🇸 War De-Escalation
2026-04-14
🌍 Oil Price Decline
2026-04-14
Expectations of a ceasefire and possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil prices.
🌍 Inflation Expectation Decline
2026-04-17
Lower oil prices reduce energy costs, which makes people expect less future inflation.
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-04-17
Eased inflation fears from lower oil prices reduced expectations for future interest rates, pushing bond yields down.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Interest Rate Decline
2026-04-22
Lower Treasury yields reduce the cost for lenders to fund mortgages, allowing them to offer lower rates to borrowers.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
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APR 16
Closed: +0.63%
🇺🇸 War De-Escalation
2026-04-14
🌍 Oil Price Decline
2026-04-14
Expectations of a ceasefire and possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil prices.
🇺🇸 Inflation Expectation Decline
2026-04-15
Lower oil prices reduce the cost of energy and goods, easing worries about rising prices.
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-04-16
Lower energy prices reduced inflation worries, making investors expect fewer Fed rate hikes.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Interest Rate Decline
2026-04-22
Lower Treasury yields reduce the cost for lenders to fund mortgages, allowing them to offer lower rates to borrowers.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
🇺🇸 Earnings Rise
2026-04-16
🇺🇸 Stock Market Rise
2026-04-16
PepsiCo's better-than-expected earnings report boosted investor confidence, lifting its stock price and contributing to broader market gains.
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-04-16
A record S&P 500 stock index reduced investor demand for safe assets, pushing mortgage rates lower.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Interest Rate Decline
2026-04-22
Lower Treasury yields reduce the cost for lenders to fund mortgages, allowing them to offer lower rates to borrowers.
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TREASURY YIELD ▼
🇺🇸 Interest Rate Cut Expectation
2026-04-16
TREASURY YIELD ▼
2026-04-16
Lower inflation concerns from falling energy prices reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes, pushing bond yields down.
🇺🇸 Mortgage Interest Rate Decline
2026-04-22
Lower Treasury yields reduce the cost for lenders to fund mortgages, allowing them to offer lower rates to borrowers.
↓
TREASURY YIELD ▼
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