Macro Events — May 8, 2026

Us Stock Market

U.S. stocks swung between gains and losses this week, pulled in opposite directions by strong corporate earnings and the conflict with Iran. Falling energy prices and progress toward a peace deal pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs midweek, with chipmaker AMD jumping 20% on blowout results and Disney rising 5%. But renewed military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday knocked stocks back, with the Dow dropping 0.6% from the 50,000 level as investors waited to see whether a proposed deal to end the war would hold.

Oil Price

Oil prices fell sharply in the early part of the week as the U.S. and Iran moved toward a possible peace deal, with reports of a formal proposal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel. That drop reversed on Thursday when Iran accused the U.S. of violating a ceasefire after both sides exchanged fire near the Strait, sending prices back above $100. The swings rippled outward: falling prices briefly strengthened India's currency and boosted travel stocks in Europe, while the rebound raised inflation concerns from Australia to Japan, where businesses passed along higher fuel costs at the fastest pace on record.

Natural Gas Price

Natural gas prices swung sharply this week, driven almost entirely by the back-and-forth between the US and Iran. Early in the week, hopes for a peace deal and a pause in US military operations near the Strait of Hormuz sent European gas prices down more than 8%, but renewed US strikes on Iranian targets Thursday reversed that drop, pushing both European and UK prices back up as traders worried the strait, which handles about one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas supply, would stay blocked. In the US, prices fell separately as maintenance at export terminals left more gas sitting in the domestic market, while the broader surge in energy costs this year has started squeezing consumers, contributing to the first decline in used car prices in six months.

Gold Price

Gold prices rose through the week, climbing above $4,700, driven by two opposing forces on consecutive days. Early in the week, U.S. military clashes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed prices up on safety concerns, but the bigger move came when reports surfaced that Washington sent Iran a peace proposal, which sent oil prices tumbling and eased worries that stubborn inflation would force central banks to keep interest rates high for longer. A weaker U.S. dollar added further support, making gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

Bond Yield

The interest paid on U.S. 10-year bonds moved in opposite directions this week, first climbing to a nine-month high around 4.44% after Iranian military strikes pushed energy prices up and raised fears the Fed might need to raise rates, then dropping sharply to a two-week low of 4.32% after the U.S. and Iran moved toward a ceasefire deal that sent oil prices tumbling and eased inflation worries. That early rise in bond rates also pushed mortgage rates up, causing mortgage applications to fall 4.4% as borrowing got more expensive for homebuyers. By week's end, markets had largely shifted from expecting rate increases to pricing in steady rates through year-end, with only a small chance of a cut later this fall.

Us Economy

U.S. markets swung sharply this week as hopes for a deal to end the war with Iran pushed oil prices down, which pulled bond interest rates to two-week lows and helped stocks hit new records by midweek. But renewed military clashes near the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday reversed some of that optimism, dragging stocks lower and reviving worries that high energy costs could keep pushing prices up and force the Fed to raise rates. Strong company earnings, especially from AI-related firms like AMD (up roughly 19%) and Disney, cushioned the blow and kept major indexes near record territory despite the geopolitical whiplash.

China Economy

Military strikes and clashes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz pushed global oil prices higher this week, sending energy and production costs surging across the world. For China, which imports massive amounts of oil and raw materials, these rising costs threaten to increase prices for consumers and squeeze factory profits at a time when global demand is already weakening from the conflict's uncertainty. The ripple effects spread widely, with countries from South Africa to Moldova raising or considering raising interest rates to fight inflation, while farmers globally cut back on cost-heavy crops and investors pulled away from riskier markets.

Europe Economy

The European economy sent mixed signals this week as Middle East conflict and shifting oil prices pulled in different directions. Early in the week, energy disruptions from the Iran war pushed Eurozone producer prices up at the sharpest monthly pace since 2022, drove Polish inflation higher, and caused Spain's private sector to shrink for the first time in nearly two and a half years. By midweek, hopes for a US-Iran peace deal brought oil prices down, which eased inflation worries in the UK and caused markets to dial back expectations for Bank of England rate hikes from three down to two this year.