Macro Events — April 29, 2026

Us Stock Market

U.S. stock futures fell on Monday after President Trump cancelled plans to send negotiators for a second round of peace talks with Iran, which pushed oil prices higher and raised worries that the Federal Reserve would need to keep interest rates elevated longer. Stocks continued sliding on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 losing 0.4% and the Nasdaq dropping 1%, as a report that OpenAI was missing its own growth targets dragged down chip and AI-related companies. The Dow held roughly flat because gains from strong Coca-Cola earnings offset the tech losses.

Oil Price

Oil prices climbed sharply over this period, with Brent crude topping $115 a barrel (a four-year high) and WTI pushing near $100, as the U.S.-Iran conflict kept the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil shipments, almost completely shut down. Peace talks stalled after the U.S. rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the strait, and reports that President Trump ordered preparations for a prolonged naval blockade deepened fears of a lasting supply cutoff that the International Energy Agency called the largest on record. The price surge rippled outward, dragging down Germany's stock market for an eighth straight day, pushing UK bond interest rates to 2008-era highs on inflation fears, and squeezing consumers from the Philippines to Japan with higher fuel costs.

Natural Gas Price

U.S. natural gas prices slid near an 18-month low around $2.67, as warmer-than-normal spring temperatures cut heating demand and pushed storage levels to about 8% above seasonal norms, even though producers like EQT started cutting output in response to low prices. In Europe, prices swung sharply on the back of the U.S.-Iran standoff. Peace talks collapsed over the weekend, pushing European prices to a two-week high above €45, but they dipped when Iran floated a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, then bounced back above €44 after reports that President Trump was preparing for a prolonged blockade of Iran rather than accepting the deal.

Gold Price

Gold dropped over 2% to around $4,570 by Tuesday, its lowest in a month, after President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal and diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz stalled. The breakdown in talks pushed oil prices higher, stoking fears that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and force central banks to hold or even raise interest rates, which makes gold less attractive since it pays no income. The selloff dragged down major Canadian mining stocks, with some falling nearly 5%.

Bond Yield

Rising oil prices from the stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed inflation fears higher, which in turn drove the interest paid on the 10-year U.S. government bond up to about 4.35%, a one-month high. Investors also held back ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, where officials are expected to leave rates unchanged given those same inflation concerns. That bump in bond rates fed directly into slightly higher mortgage rates, which helped push weekly mortgage applications down about 1.6%.

Us Economy

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil shipments, pushed oil prices near $100 a barrel and sent inflation fears surging after U.S.-Iran peace talks stalled over nuclear disagreements. That spike in energy costs drove the interest rate on the 10-year government bond to a one-month high near 4.35%, lifted mortgage rates, and led investors to expect the Federal Reserve and other central banks will keep rates high for longer rather than cut them. U.S. stocks also fell, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.4% and the Nasdaq losing 1%, as the combination of rising costs and dimming hopes for rate relief weighed on markets.

China Economy

Military conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, now in its ninth week, cut off roughly 20% of global oil flows and created what energy officials called the largest supply shock on record, pushing oil above $107 a barrel and driving up costs for Chinese steelmakers and manufacturers. At the same time, iron ore prices fell below 780 yuan per ton after China released stockpiled shipments from BHP that had built up during a separate trade standoff, and weakening demand added pressure as Beijing moved to rein in industrial overcapacity. The combination of rising energy costs and softening demand left China caught between higher prices on what it buys and lower prices on what it sells, clouding the outlook for its economy.

Europe Economy

European consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in over three years as Middle East energy supply disruptions pushed inflation higher across the region, squeezing household finances and spending plans. In Germany, consumer morale hit a three-year low and the interest rate the government pays on 10-year bonds climbed toward levels not seen since 2011, after a European Central Bank survey showed people now expect prices to rise 4% over the next year, up sharply from 2.5% the month before. UK inflation reached 3.3% driven by soaring fuel costs from the blocked Strait of Hormuz, pushing markets to expect at least two rate increases this year instead of one, while Spain bucked the trend with inflation easing slightly thanks to falling electricity prices and government relief measures.