Macro Events — April 23, 2026

Us Stock Market

U.S. stocks had a choppy few days driven by shifting headlines out of the Middle East. Early in the week, stocks slipped about 0.6% as a U.S. military strike on an Iranian cargo ship shut down a key shipping route again, pushing energy prices higher and raising fears that a peace deal would fall apart before the ceasefire expired. Markets then bounced back roughly 1% on Wednesday after President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely and strong earnings from companies like Boeing, AT&T, and UnitedHealth gave investors more reasons to buy.

Oil Price

Oil prices climbed over three straight sessions, with U.S. crude rising above $92 a barrel and global benchmarks touching $100, after U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed, Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz again, and military attacks on commercial ships near Iran choked off roughly 5% of global oil supply. A brief dip came when President Trump extended the ceasefire, but prices recovered because Iran refused to reopen the strait or rejoin negotiations while the U.S. Navy keeps blocking Iranian ports. The sustained price surge is already rippling outward, pushing South African inflation higher and dragging down stock markets in India and South Korea through rising energy costs.

Natural Gas Price

U.S. military action against Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply and pushing European natural gas prices above €44 per megawatt-hour after four straight days of gains. In the U.S., prices climbed to a two-week high as domestic production dropped to an 11-week low and record amounts of gas flowed to export terminals, though a storage surplus from mild spring weather kept a lid on further increases. The spike in global energy costs also dragged down European stock markets, with indexes falling more than 1% as higher fuel prices raised fears about inflation and slower economic growth.

Gold Price

Gold dropped roughly 10% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, as military strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices sharply higher, which raised inflation fears and made investors expect the Fed to keep rates high or even raise them. A brief bounce came midweek when President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, but that relief faded after Iran pulled out of peace talks and the Fed chair nominee signaled a tougher approach to fighting inflation. A stronger dollar added further pressure, leaving gold trading near $4,750 an ounce by late in the week.

Bond Yield

The interest paid on U.S. 10-year government bonds bounced around the 4.25%–4.30% range this week, pulled in opposite directions. Strong economic data, including the biggest jump in retail sales in a year and a surge in private hiring, pushed rates higher by reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady all year. At the same time, hopes for a lasting U.S.-Iran peace deal briefly tugged rates lower, and that dip in bond rates helped bring average 30-year mortgage rates down to 6.35%, their third straight weekly decline.

Us Economy

U.S. stocks seesawed this week as a military strike on Iran drove up oil prices and raised fears of higher inflation, pulling markets down, while strong retail sales, solid jobs numbers, and big corporate earnings pushed back in the other direction. President Trump's decision to extend the Iran ceasefire lifted stocks about 1% on Wednesday, but the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked, keeping energy costs elevated and raising the chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady or even considers increases. The stronger economic data also nudged government bond interest rates up near 4.3%, though mortgage rates still dipped for a third straight week to 6.35% as borrowers locked in earlier drops.

China Economy

China's central bank held its key lending rates at record lows for the eleventh straight month while maintaining a growth-friendly stance, which helped push Chinese stock indexes to multi-month highs. At the same time, resilient demand from Chinese steel mills and declining port stockpiles lifted iron ore prices to a one-week high, though the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted metals shipments to the Gulf region, which had been China's second-largest steel export destination. The broader picture is mixed: domestic demand looks steady, but the energy shock from the Iran conflict is raising costs and threatening global growth, which could drag on China's export-heavy economy.

Europe Economy

Consumer confidence across Europe fell to its lowest point in over three years, driven by rising energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict, which squeezed household budgets and darkened the economic outlook. In the UK, inflation climbed to 3.3% in March, up from 3.0%, largely because the conflict pushed petrol prices higher. Meanwhile, UK government borrowing costs edged up after a fired official's political testimony added uncertainty, though hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East gave the British pound a small boost.