What drives US bond yields?
What drives US bond yields? Treasury yields reflect where markets think rates, inflation, and growth are heading. Each row traces a chain of real events that pushed yields higher or lower, month by month.
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.
MAR 1 – MAR 31, 2026
🇸🇦 oil production decline
→🌍 oil price rise
→🌍 inflation rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood decline
🇮🇷 war escalation
→🌍 fuel supply disruption
→🌍 oil price rise
→🌍 inflation expectation rise
🇮🇷 war escalation
→🌍 fuel supply disruption
→🌍 oil price rise
→🌍 inflation rise expectation
🇺🇸 strike action
→🇺🇸 job decline
🕌 war escalation
→🌍 energy price rise
🕌 oil production decline
→🌍 energy price rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 retail sales decline
🇮🇷 conflict escalation
🕌 war escalation
→🌍 energy price rise
→🇺🇸 inflation worry rise
🌍 oil price rise
🇮🇷 geopolitical turmoil rise
→🌍 oil price rise
→🌍 inflation rise
🕌 war escalation
→🌍 energy price rise
🕌 war escalation
→🌍 energy price rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 treasury yield rise
🇺🇸 energy price surge
→🇺🇸 rate cut probability decline
🕌 conflict escalation
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.
FEB 1 – FEB 28, 2026
🇺🇸 portfolio diversification
🇺🇸 tariff threat
→🌍 bond demand rise
🇺🇸 risk appetite decline
🇺🇸 tariff implementation
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff uncertainty
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🌍 geopolitical turmoil rise
→🌍 oil price rise
🇺🇸 tariff removal
🇺🇸 economic data positive
🇺🇸 hawkish monetary policy
🇺🇸 capital goods order rise
🇺🇸 durable goods order decline
🇺🇸 housing start rise
🇺🇸 hawkish rhetoric rise
🇺🇸 equity market selling
🇺🇸 manufacturing rise
→🇺🇸 inflation decline
🌍 risk asset decline
🇺🇸 job growth
🇺🇸 job rise
🇺🇸 spending decline
🇺🇸 sales decline
🇺🇸 economic data release
🇨🇳 treasury holding decline
🇺🇸 investor sentiment improvement
🇺🇸 winter storm
→🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
🇺🇸 private job growth decline
🇺🇸 job opening decline
🇺🇸 job cut rise
🇺🇸 factory expansion
🌍 risk rise
JAN 1 – JAN 31, 2026
🇺🇸 government shutdown fear
🇺🇸 tariff threat reduction
🇺🇸 tariff decline
🇺🇸 military tension decline
🇯🇵 bond-buying operation
🇺🇸 hawkish policy expectation
🇺🇸 unemployment decline
🇺🇸 mortgage-backed security purchase
🇺🇸 price stability
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 job growth
🇺🇸 job opening decline
🇺🇸 payroll growth decline
🇺🇸 inflation decline forecast
DEC 1 – DEC 31, 2025
🇺🇸 inflation drop
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 economic growth acceleration
🇺🇸 economic growth acceleration
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 bond purchase
→🇺🇸 treasury yield decline
🇺🇸 interest rate cut
🇺🇸 labor market decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate decline
🇺🇸 job data decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 treasury yield decline
🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 labor market decline
🇯🇵 rate hike expectation rise
🇺🇸 inflation steady
NOV 1 – NOV 30, 2025
🇺🇸 government shutdown
→🇺🇸 consumer confidence decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 regulation relaxation
🇺🇸 regulatory relaxation
🇺🇸 job market cooling
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 economic data weak
🇺🇸 cost rise
→🇺🇸 job cut rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 consumer sentiment decline
→🇺🇸 economic uncertainty rise
🌍 risk aversion rise
🇺🇸 fed bill purchases
🇺🇸 government shutdown
→🇺🇸 official data halt
→🇺🇸 safety demand rise
🇺🇸 job market slowdown
🇺🇸 government shutdown
→🇺🇸 economic decline
🇺🇸 interest rate cut
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 labor market weakness
🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 government shutdown
→🌍 risk rise
🇺🇸 government borrowing decline
OCT 1 – OCT 31, 2025
🇺🇸 trade dispute escalation
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 monetary easing
🇺🇸 banking sector stress
🇺🇸 credit market risk rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise threat
→🇨🇳 rare earth export control
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 trade tension rise
🇺🇸 manufacturing decline
🇺🇸 government shutdown
🇺🇸 tariff rise threat
→🇨🇳 rare earth export control
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 trade tension rise
🇺🇸 government shutdown
→🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 data analysis recalibration
→🇺🇸 job decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 data analysis recalibration
→🇺🇸 job decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 labor market weakening
🇺🇸 tariff rise threat
🇺🇸 tariff rise threat
🇺🇸 data analysis recalibration
→🇺🇸 job decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 job market slowdown
🇺🇸 job market slowdown
🇺🇸 data analysis recalibration
→🇺🇸 job decline
🇺🇸 consumer confidence decline
🇺🇸 government shutdown
🇺🇸 layoff rise
SEP 1 – SEP 30, 2025
🇺🇸 rate-cut caution signal
🇺🇸 treasury yield decline
🇺🇸 housing market weakness
🇺🇸 retail sales rise
🇺🇸 labor market decline
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
🇺🇸 inflation data release
🇺🇸 job data decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
🇺🇸 inflation data release
🇺🇸 producer price decline
🇺🇸 job data decline
🇺🇸 demand decline
→🇺🇸 job decline
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 job opening decline
→🇺🇸 factory order decline
🇺🇸 job opening decline
🇺🇸 inflation rise
→🇺🇸 stock decline
🇺🇸 fiscal expansion
AUG 1 – AUG 31, 2025
🇺🇸 margin decline
→🇺🇸 producer price decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 tariff investigation
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 sector activity rise
🇺🇸 interest rate cut signal
🇺🇸 margin decline
→🇺🇸 producer price decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation decline
🇺🇸 corporate income decline
🇺🇸 public spending rise
🇧🇷 house arrest
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 us payrolls decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 services data decline
🇺🇸 us job data decline
🇺🇸 margin decline
→🇺🇸 producer price decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 job growth slowdown
🇺🇸 tariff fear
→🇺🇸 job decline
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 bond buyback rise
🇺🇸 labor market deterioration
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 job growth decline
JUL 1 – JUL 31, 2025
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 expected interest rate decline
🇺🇸 trade uncertainty
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 import cost rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 producer price decline
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 import cost rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 bond demand rise
🇺🇸 labor market data
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 job data improvement
🇺🇸 job rise
🇺🇸 job data decline
🇺🇸 job growth decline
🇺🇸 employment growth decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 fiscal outlook concern rise
🇺🇸 trade worry rise
JUN 1 – JUN 30, 2025
🇸🇦 oil production rise expectation
→🌍 oil price decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 inflation drop
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 inflation drop
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇸🇦 oil production rise expectation
→🌍 oil price decline
→🌍 inflation pressure decline
🇺🇸 tariff concerns
→🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🕌 war escalation
🇮🇱 geopolitical turmoil rise
🕌 military tension decline
🇺🇸 tariff announcement
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇮🇷 geopolitical turmoil rise
🇺🇸 bond demand rise
🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 trade negotiation
🇺🇸 us job data improvement
🇺🇸 employment growth decline
MAY 1 – MAY 31, 2025
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 rating downgrade
→🇺🇸 deficit rise
🇺🇸 tariff delay
🇯🇵 bond issuance decline
🇺🇸 tariff fear
🇺🇸 bill passage
🇺🇸 rating downgrade
→🇺🇸 deficit rise
🇺🇸 tax cut proposal
🇺🇸 deficit expectation rise
🇺🇸 bond demand decline
🇺🇸 tax cut
🇺🇸 rating downgrade
🇺🇸 sovereign debt downgrade
🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 government bond purchase rise
🇺🇸 job growth decline
🇺🇸 service activity decline
🇺🇸 inflation drop
APR 1 – APR 30, 2025
🇺🇸 output decline
🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇨🇳 tariff suspension hint
🇺🇸 political reassurance
🇺🇸 tariff expectation decline
🇺🇸 policy uncertainty decline
🇺🇸 political criticism
🇺🇸 political pressure on central bank
🇺🇸 tariff decline possibility
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 spending decline
→🇺🇸 inflation drop
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation decline
🇺🇸 tariff policy uncertainty
🇺🇸 tariff pause
🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🌍 investor fear rise
🇺🇸 tariff halt
🇨🇳 tariff rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 tariff announcement
🇺🇸 job opening decline
🇺🇸 uncertainty rise
🇺🇸 wholesale inflation drop
MAR 1 – MAR 31, 2025
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 balance sheet runoff slowdown
🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 quantitative tightening slowdown
🇺🇸 interest rate steady
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 recession fear
🇺🇸 bankruptcy rise
→🇺🇸 job cut rise
🇨🇦 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 uncertainty rise
🇺🇸 trade policy uncertainty
🇺🇸 payroll growth decline
🇨🇦 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 uncertainty rise
→🇺🇸 bond demand rise
🇺🇸 price pressure rise
🇺🇸 manufacturing decline
🇺🇸 inflation drop
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.
FEB 1 – FEB 28, 2025
🇺🇸 severe weather
→🇺🇸 sales decline
→🇺🇸 spending decline
🇺🇸 economic contraction fears rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇲🇽 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🌍 geopolitical risk
→🇺🇸 safe-haven demand rise
🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 treasury security supply hold
🇺🇸 fed asset sale pause signal
🇺🇸 asset sale pause
🇺🇸 long-term security supply decline
🇺🇸 interest rate cut expectations decline
🇺🇸 bond supply decline
🇺🇸 asset selling pause
🇺🇸 balance sheet runoff slowdown
🇺🇸 tariff rise threat
🇺🇸 tariff threat
🇺🇸 tariff announcement
🇺🇸 service price decline
🇺🇸 treasury account balance rise
→🇺🇸 treasury demand rise
🇲🇽 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇲🇽 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 consumer confidence decline
JAN 1 – JAN 31, 2025
🇺🇸 import rise
→🇺🇸 economic contraction
→🇺🇸 stock decline
🇺🇸 job growth decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 tariff easing
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇺🇸 producer price decline
🇺🇸 public spending rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise
DEC 1 – DEC 31, 2024
🇨🇳 shipment decline
→🇺🇸 stock decline
→🇺🇸 stock decline
🇺🇸 rate hike expectation rise
🇺🇸 economic data decline
🇺🇸 interest rate cut expectations decline
🇺🇸 government spending agreement
🇺🇸 inflation decline
🇺🇸 inflation rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 tariff fear
🇺🇸 tariff threat
🇺🇸 inflation data release
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 service activity decline
🇺🇸 inflation drop
NOV 1 – NOV 30, 2024
🇺🇸 cabinet appointment
🇺🇸 inflation data release
🌍 geopolitical turmoil rise
🇺🇸 us inflation data release
🇺🇸 treasury secretary nomination
🇺🇸 nomination
🇷🇺 war escalation
🌍 risk aversion
🇺🇸 treasury yield decline
🇺🇸 spending expectation rise
🇺🇸 election uncertainty rise
🇺🇸 election uncertainty
🇺🇸 election poll shift
🇺🇸 election anticipation
🇺🇸 job growth decline
OCT 1 – OCT 31, 2024
🇺🇸 election uncertainty
→🇺🇸 interest rate expectation shift
🇺🇸 interest rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 hurricane damage
→🇺🇸 unemployment rise
🕌 geopolitical turmoil rise
🇺🇸 demand decline
→🇺🇸 manufacturing decline
SEP 1 – SEP 30, 2024
🇺🇸 consumer confidence decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 inflation persistence
🇺🇸 consumer sentiment decline
🇺🇸 treasury yield decline
🇺🇸 economic outlook improvement
🇺🇸 wage rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 job market softening
🇺🇸 job opening decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 job opening decline
🇺🇸 interest rate rise
→🇺🇸 cost rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 interest rate cut
AUG 1 – AUG 31, 2024
🇺🇸 unemployment rise
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 interest rate cut signal
🇺🇸 labor market weakening
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 growth concern
🇺🇸 labor cost increase below forecasts
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 job growth decline
🇺🇸 wage growth decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 us jobs data weak
🇺🇸 profit decline
🇺🇸 manufacturing contraction
🇺🇸 profit decline
→🇺🇸 bond demand rise
🇺🇸 corporate income decline
🇺🇸 manufacturing decline
🇺🇸 labor cost rise
🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 labor cost rise
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
JUL 1 – JUL 31, 2024
🇺🇸 income rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 economic data release anticipation
🇺🇸 us inflation drop
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 political event (biden ends reelection bid)
🇺🇸 political event (biden withdrawal)
🇺🇸 assassination attempt
🇺🇸 inflation decline forecast
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 job growth decline
→🇺🇸 unemployment rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 inflation drop
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 economic decline
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 demand decline
→🇺🇸 job decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 unemployment rise
🇺🇸 wage growth decline
🇺🇸 job growth decline
JUN 1 – JUN 30, 2024
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
🇺🇸 economic slowdown
🇺🇸 economic growth
🇺🇸 bond auction success
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 producer price decline
🇺🇸 producer price decline
🇺🇸 interest rate cut expectations decline
🇺🇸 job opening decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 consumer price decline
🇺🇸 bond demand rise
🇺🇸 job market softening
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 manufacturing decline
🇺🇸 hiring slowdown
🇺🇸 unemployment rise
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 quantitative tightening slowdown
MAY 1 – MAY 31, 2024
🇺🇸 spending decline
→🇺🇸 economic growth decline
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 hawkish monetary policy
🇺🇸 bond demand decline
🇺🇸 inflation expectation
🇺🇸 consumer confidence rise
🇺🇸 bond auction disappointment
🇺🇸 treasury yield rise
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 treasury selling slowdown
🇺🇸 demand decline
→🇺🇸 manufacturing decline
🇺🇸 factory cost decline
🇺🇸 sales decline
🇺🇸 interest rate decision anticipation
🇺🇸 interest rate steady
APR 1 – APR 30, 2024
🕌 military tension decline
🇮🇱 military strike
→🌍 safe-haven asset demand rise
🌍 military tension decline
🕌 geopolitical turmoil rise
🇺🇸 producer price rise
🇺🇸 job growth decline
→🇺🇸 unemployment rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 economic slowdown
MAR 1 – MAR 31, 2024
🇺🇸 economic growth decline
🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 interest rate steady
🇺🇸 inflation drop
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 job market slowdown
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 inflation rise
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 economic data decline
🇺🇸 interest rate guidance unchanged
🇺🇸 service activity slowdown
🇺🇸 economic data improvement
FEB 1 – FEB 29, 2024
🇺🇸 inflation data release
🇺🇸 bond demand decline
🇺🇸 job rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 jobless claim decline
🇺🇸 holiday shopping season end
→🇺🇸 sales decline
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 strong economic data
🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 job market slowdown
JAN 1 – JAN 31, 2024
🇺🇸 PMI decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 diesel price decline
→🇺🇸 producer price decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇺🇸 hiring slowdown
🇺🇸 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 employment cost growth slowdown
🇺🇸 government borrowing decline
🇺🇸 job market strength
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation decline
🇺🇸 service sector slowdown
🇺🇸 labor data improvement
🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇺🇸 job opening decline
🇺🇸 manufacturing decline
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.