What drives the US dollar?

The world's reserve currency reacts to Fed policy, trade balances, and risk appetite. Each row traces a chain of real events that pushed the dollar higher or lower, month by month.

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MAY 1 – MAY 31, 2026
MAY 21 Closed: −0.01%
🇺🇸 Peace Negotiation Progress 2026-05-21
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-21
Optimism over US-Iran peace talks reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, causing it to decline.
MAY 20 Closed: −0.19%
🇺🇸 Deal Progress 2026-05-20
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-20
Hopes for a US-Iran deal reduced safe-haven demand, weakening the dollar.
MAY 18 Closed: −0.4%
🌍 Safe-Haven Demand Decline 2026-05-18
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-18
Reduced safe-haven demand made the dollar less attractive, causing it to decline.
🇮🇷 Conflict Escalation 2026-05-11
🌍 Energy Price Rise 2026-05-11
Conflict escalation disrupts oil supply, raising energy prices globally.
🇺🇸 Inflation Rise 2026-05-15
Higher energy costs increase production and transportation expenses, pushing up overall prices.
🇺🇸 Interest Rate Rise Expectation 2026-05-18
Rising US inflation leads traders to expect the Fed may raise interest rates.
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-05-18
Expectations of a Fed rate hike make the dollar more attractive to investors, boosting its value.
MAY 15 Closed: +0.39%
🕌 War-Driven Inflation Concern 2026-05-15
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-05-15
War-driven inflation concerns boost the dollar as investors seek safe-haven assets.
MAY 13 Closed: +0.19%
🇮🇷 Conflict Escalation 2026-05-11
🌍 Energy Price Rise 2026-05-11
Conflict escalation disrupts oil supply, raising energy prices globally.
🇺🇸 Inflation Rise 2026-05-13
Higher fuel costs increase production and transportation expenses, pushing up overall prices.
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-05-13
Higher inflation reduces expectations for rate cuts, strengthening the dollar.

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MAY 12 Closed: +0.36%
🇺🇸 Ceasefire Stability Concern 2026-05-12
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-05-12
Ceasefire uncertainty boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar, causing it to rise.
MAY 8 Closed: −0.42%
🇺🇸 Military Strike 2026-05-08
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-05-08
Clashes in Hormuz increased geopolitical risk, boosting demand for the safe-haven US dollar.
MAY 7 Closed: +0.23%
🇮🇷 Geopolitical Agreement Optimism 2026-05-06
🇺🇸 Safe-Haven Demand Decline 2026-05-06
Optimism over a US-Iran deal reduced demand for the safe-haven dollar.
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-07
Reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar weakens its value against other currencies.
🕌 Peace Deal Hopes 2026-05-07
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-07
Peace progress reduces geopolitical risk, weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar.
MAY 6 Closed: −0.47%
🇮🇷 Trade Tension Decline 2026-05-06
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-06
Optimism for a deal with Iran reduced safe-haven demand, weakening the dollar.
🇺🇸 War De-Escalation 2026-05-06
🌍 Oil Price Decline 2026-05-06
De-escalation reduced supply disruption fears, causing oil prices to ease.
🇺🇸 Inflation Expectation Decline 2026-05-06
Oil prices fell, reducing inflation concerns and expectations of Fed rate hikes.
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-06
Lower inflation fears reduce demand for the dollar as a hedge, causing it to fall.
🇮🇷 Geopolitical Deal Optimism 2026-05-06
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-06
Optimism for a US-Iran deal reduced safe-haven demand, causing the dollar to fall.
MAY 1 Closed: −0.76%
🇯🇵 Yen Rally 2026-05-01
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-01
Yen rally strengthens yen, causing dollar to weaken against it.
🇯🇵 Yen Advance 2026-05-01
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-05-01
Yen advance strengthens yen, weakening the dollar as DXY falls.
APR 1 – APR 30, 2026
APR 30 Closed: +0.11%
🇺🇸 Military Blockade 2026-04-30
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-30
The US naval blockade on Iran increased geopolitical tensions, boosting demand for the safe-haven dollar.
🇺🇸 Interest Rate Decision 2026-04-30
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-30
The Fed's hawkish stance and rate hold boosted the dollar.
APR 29 Closed: +0.06%
🌍 Safe-Haven Asset Demand Rise 2026-04-29
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-29
Investors bought US dollars as a safe haven due to US-Iran tensions, causing the dollar to rise.
🇺🇸 Diplomacy Setbacks 2026-04-24
🌍 Geopolitical Tension Rise 2026-04-24
Stalled peace talks increase geopolitical tensions, raising uncertainty globally.
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-29
Geopolitical tensions increased demand for the safe-haven US dollar, pushing its value up.
🇺🇸 Hawkish Monetary Policy Signal 2026-04-29
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-29
Hawkish Fed signals make holding dollars more attractive, boosting demand and the dollar's value.
APR 28 Closed: +0.32%
🕌 Geopolitical Uncertainty 2026-04-28
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-28
Uncertainty in the Middle East drives investors to the safe-haven dollar, increasing its value.
🇮🇷 Hawkish Remarks Exchange 2026-04-28
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-28
Hawkish remarks between Iran and US boosted the dollar, causing currency appreciation.
🇮🇷 Diplomatic Negotiation Progress 2026-04-28
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-04-28
Diplomatic efforts reduced safe-haven demand, causing the dollar to decline.
APR 27 Closed: −0.3%
🇮🇷 Diplomatic Proposal 2026-04-27
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-04-27
Hopes for a diplomatic proposal eased safe-haven demand, causing the dollar to decline.
🇺🇸 Diplomacy Setbacks 2026-04-27
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-27
Failed peace talks increased geopolitical tensions, boosting safe-haven demand for the dollar.
APR 23 Closed: +0.21%
🇺🇸 Military Strike 2026-04-23
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-23
Military tensions in the Middle East increased demand for the safe-haven US dollar, causing it to appreciate.

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APR 22 Closed: +0.18%
🇺🇸 Geopolitical Tension Rise 2026-04-20
🌍 Risk Sentiment Decline 2026-04-20
Geopolitical tensions in Iran made investors more cautious, reducing demand for riskier assets like the New Zealand dollar.
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-22
Geopolitical tensions reduced investor appetite for risk, increasing demand for safe-haven US dollars.
APR 21 Closed: +0.37%
🕌 Geopolitical Uncertainty 2026-04-21
DOLLAR ▲ 2026-04-21
Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East prompted investors to seek the safety of the US dollar.
APR 17 Closed: −0.12%
🇺🇸 War De-Escalation 2026-04-14
🌍 Oil Price Decline 2026-04-14
Expectations of a ceasefire and possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil prices.
🇺🇸 Interest Rate Cut Expectation Rise 2026-04-17
Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure, making the Fed more likely to cut interest rates.
DOLLAR ▼ 2026-04-17
Expectations of future Fed rate cuts make the dollar less attractive to investors, so its value falls.

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