What drives the euro?
What drives the euro? The eurozone's shared currency is shaped by ECB policy, diverging economies, and energy dependence. Each row traces a chain of real events that pushed the euro higher or lower, month by month.
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.
MAR 1 – MAR 31, 2026
blockade
→oil production decline
→🌍 oil price rise
🕌 geopolitical conflict
🕌 war escalation
→🌍 natural gas price rise
→🇪🇺 inflation rise
🕌 geopolitical turmoil rise
🇮🇷 war escalation
→🌍 fuel supply disruption
→🌍 oil price rise
🕌 geopolitical conflict escalation
🕌 war development
🕌 war escalation
→🌍 safe-haven demand rise
conflict escalation
→🌍 energy price rise
🕌 conflict escalation
→🌍 energy price rise
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.
FEB 1 – FEB 28, 2026
🇩🇪 domestic demand rise
→🇩🇪 business confidence rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇪🇺 trade deal pause
🇩🇪 business sentiment rise
🇺🇸 inflation expectation
→🇺🇸 interest rate expectation rise
🇪🇺 central bank leadership uncertainty
🇺🇸 job rise
🇪🇺 interest rate steady
JAN 1 – JAN 31, 2026
🇺🇸 price stability
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
→🇺🇸 dollar decline
🇪🇺 trade deal
🇺🇸 price stability
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
→🇺🇸 dollar decline
🇺🇸 tariff decline
🇺🇸 tariff fear
🇺🇸 inflation data release
🇪🇺 inflation drop
🇺🇸 geopolitical uncertainty rise
🇩🇪 sentiment rise
DEC 1 – DEC 31, 2025
🇪🇺 service fee rise
→🇪🇺 inflation rise
→🇪🇺 interest rate steady
🇫🇷 budget approval
🇺🇸 labor market decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate decline
🇪🇺 policy communication
🇪🇺 rate hike expectation rise
🇪🇺 economic expansion
🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇩🇪 inflation rise
🇺🇸 us interest rate decline
🇪🇺 inflation drop
NOV 1 – NOV 30, 2025
🇺🇸 economic data decline
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🌍 risk appetite rise
🇪🇺 interest rate expectation shift
🇪🇺 wage growth decline
🇪🇺 interest rate steady
🇺🇸 rate cut expectation decline
OCT 1 – OCT 31, 2025
🇪🇺 economic data release
→🇪🇺 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 inflation data delay
🇫🇷 political tension decline
🇺🇸 data analysis recalibration
→🇺🇸 job decline
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇫🇷 political stability rise
🇫🇷 pension reform suspension
🇫🇷 deficit worry
🇫🇷 political uncertainty
🇺🇸 trade tension
🇫🇷 political turmoil
🇫🇷 political instability rise
🇫🇷 political uncertainty rise
🇫🇷 political resignation
🇫🇷 political instability
🇪🇺 sector activity rise
🇪🇺 economic growth
SEP 1 – SEP 30, 2025
🇪🇺 inflation rise
🇪🇺 new order decline
→🇪🇺 manufacturing decline
🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇪🇺 investor sentiment rise
🇺🇸 dollar depreciation
🇫🇷 debt rise
→🇫🇷 rating downgrade
🇪🇺 interest rate steady
🇺🇸 dollar decline
🇩🇪 public spending rise
→🇪🇺 government bond yield rise
🇩🇪 sentiment decline
AUG 1 – AUG 31, 2025
🇪🇺 public spending rise
🇪🇺 spending rise
🇺🇸 margin decline
→🇺🇸 producer price decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇩🇪 industrial production decline
JUL 1 – JUL 31, 2025
🇪🇺 economic slowdown
🇺🇸 interest rate steady
🇺🇸 deal announcement
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 trade deal
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 trade deal
🇺🇸 trade deal optimism
🇺🇸 tariff decline
🇺🇸 trade tension decline
🇺🇸 tariff fear
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇪🇺 inflation stabilization
JUN 1 – JUN 30, 2025
🇸🇦 oil production rise expectation
→🌍 oil price decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
→🇺🇸 dollar weakness
🇪🇺 interest rate divergence
🕌 war escalation
🇺🇸 job rise
🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇳🇱 government collapse
→🇳🇱 political instability rise
🌍 growth forecast decline
🇺🇸 tariff rise
MAY 1 – MAY 31, 2025
🇨🇳 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 dollar appreciation
🇺🇸 tariff delay
🇺🇸 tariff delay
🇺🇸 tariff threat rise
🇺🇸 tariff fear
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇨🇳 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 tariff decline
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇨🇳 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇨🇳 tariff decline
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇨🇳 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇨🇳 tariff decline
🇺🇸 tariff decline
→🇨🇳 tariff decline
→🇺🇸 tariff decline
🇺🇸 dollar weakness
🇺🇸 trade tension decline
🇩🇪 sentiment rise
🇪🇺 energy cost decline
→🇪🇺 inflation drop
APR 1 – APR 30, 2025
🇪🇺 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇺🇸 dollar weakness
🇩🇪 defense spending expectation rise
🇺🇸 tariff fear
→🌍 trade tension rise
🇪🇺 tariff decline
🇺🇸 tariff decline
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
🇪🇺 tariff rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 dollar depreciation
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇩🇪 fiscal expansion
🇪🇺 inflation rise
🇩🇪 sales decline
→🇪🇺 interest rate cut
MAR 1 – MAR 31, 2025
🇪🇺 restriction measures extension
🇺🇸 tariff warning
🇩🇪 debt reform
🇩🇪 public borrowing rise
🇩🇪 public spending rise
🇺🇸 tariff fear
🇺🇦 ceasefire prospect
🇺🇦 ceasefire hope
🇩🇪 fiscal reform
🇪🇺 public spending rise
🇪🇺 interest rate cut
🇨🇦 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇪🇺 defence spending rise
🇪🇺 peace deal optimism
🇪🇺 defense spending expectation rise
🇩🇪 fiscal expansion
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.
FEB 1 – FEB 28, 2025
🇩🇪 fiscal outlook concern
→🇩🇪 consumer sentiment decline
🇪🇺 defense spending outlook concern
🇩🇪 spending rise
🇩🇪 election result
🇩🇪 election result
🇪🇺 public spending rise
🌍 peace negotiation progress
🇺🇸 tariff review
🇺🇸 tariff announcement
🇪🇺 monetary policy divergence
🇲🇽 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 interest rate gap widening
🇲🇽 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇨🇳 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇲🇽 tariff rise
→🇺🇸 tariff rise
JAN 1 – JAN 31, 2025
🇪🇺 economic data decline
🇫🇷 inflation drop
🇩🇪 inflation drop
🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇪🇺 economic growth decline
🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇺🇸 tariff plan softening
🇪🇺 private sector recovery
🇺🇸 inflation drop
→🇺🇸 interest rate drop expectation
🇪🇺 manufacturing contraction ease
🇺🇸 tariff threat decline
🇺🇸 dollar strength
🇪🇺 rate cut expectation decline
🇪🇺 energy cost rise
→🇪🇺 inflation rise
🇺🇸 tariff expectation decline
🇺🇸 dollar decline
🇺🇸 GDP growth optimism
🇪🇺 monetary easing
🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇩🇪 economic growth
DEC 1 – DEC 31, 2024
🇫🇷 tax rise
→🇫🇷 government collapse
→🇫🇷 political uncertainty rise
🇩🇪 political uncertainty rise
🇺🇸 fed hawkish outlook
🇪🇺 economic decline
🇪🇺 political uncertainty rise
🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇪🇺 political instability rise
🇪🇺 economic outlook decline
🇪🇺 monetary easing
🇪🇺 economic data weak
🇫🇷 political instability
🇩🇪 inflation rise
NOV 1 – NOV 30, 2024
🇫🇷 political instability
🇺🇸 tariff rise
🇺🇸 tariff rise
→🇪🇺 economic growth decline
🇩🇪 business activity stagnation
🇪🇺 economic data decline
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇪🇺 rate cut expectation decline
🇺🇸 dollar decline
🇪🇺 business activity decline
🇪🇺 economic data decline
🇷🇺 war escalation
🇷🇺 geopolitical turmoil rise
🇺🇦 geopolitical turmoil rise
🇩🇪 political uncertainty
🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇩🇪 political instability
🇺🇸 dollar appreciation
🇺🇸 election expectation
🇺🇸 election result
OCT 1 – OCT 31, 2024
🇪🇺 inflation rise
🇪🇺 growth rise
🇩🇪 inflation rise
🇪🇺 rate cut expectation decline
🇪🇺 economic growth decline
→🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇪🇺 interest rate cut
🇪🇺 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇺🇸 interest rate cut delay expectation
🇪🇺 economic decline
→🇪🇺 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇫🇷 fiscal concern rise
🇪🇺 inflation drop
SEP 1 – SEP 30, 2024
🇫🇷 energy cost decline
→🇫🇷 inflation drop
🇪🇸 food cost decline
→🇪🇸 inflation drop
🇪🇺 economic decline
🇪🇺 private sector decline
🇪🇺 inflation outlook
→🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇪🇺 inflation outlook
→🇪🇺 interest rate decline
AUG 1 – AUG 31, 2024
🇪🇸 inflation drop
🇩🇪 inflation drop
🇪🇺 wage growth decline
🇺🇸 job decline
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 inflation drop
🇺🇸 dollar weakness
🇪🇺 monetary policy dovish
🇪🇺 energy cost decline
→🇪🇺 inflation drop
🇪🇺 energy cost decline
→🇪🇺 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
JUL 1 – JUL 31, 2024
🇪🇺 economic decline
🇺🇸 dollar decline
🇫🇷 political uncertainty decline
🇫🇷 political uncertainty rise
🇫🇷 election result
🇪🇺 lending rate hold
🇪🇺 lending rate hold
JUN 1 – JUN 30, 2024
🇫🇷 election result
🇪🇸 food price rise slowdown
→🇪🇸 inflation drop
🇫🇷 food price rise slowdown
→🇫🇷 inflation drop
🇪🇺 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇩🇪 sentiment decline
🇫🇷 sentiment decline
🇪🇺 political uncertainty
🇫🇷 political uncertainty rise
🇫🇷 political instability
🇪🇺 political uncertainty rise
🇪🇺 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇪🇺 interest rate cut
🇪🇺 interest rate decline
🇩🇪 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇪🇺 manufacturing decline
🇪🇺 service activity decline
MAY 1 – MAY 31, 2024
🌍 monetary policy divergence
🇩🇪 business confidence decline
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇺🇸 hawkish monetary policy signal
🇺🇸 interest rate rise
🇺🇸 jobless claim rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇪🇺 gdp rise
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🌍 monetary policy expectation
🇺🇸 gas cost rise
→🇺🇸 producer cost rise
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation decline
🇪🇺 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇪🇺 inflation rise
🌍 investor sentiment shift
APR 1 – APR 30, 2024
🇪🇺 inflation data release
🕌 military tension decline
🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇪🇺 monetary easing expectation
🇪🇺 lending rate hold
🇺🇸 dollar decline
🇪🇺 business activity rise
🇪🇺 interest rate steady
MAR 1 – MAR 31, 2024
🇺🇸 inflation rise
→🇺🇸 interest rate expectation shift
🇪🇺 wage growth decline
→🇪🇺 interest rate cut likelihood rise
🇪🇺 inflation drop
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇪🇺 wage growth decline
🇪🇺 lending rate hold
🇪🇺 lending rate hold
🇩🇪 inflation drop
🇪🇺 inflation drop
🇺🇸 inflation rise
FEB 1 – FEB 29, 2024
🇩🇪 inflation slowdown
→🇩🇪 inflation drop
🇪🇺 business contraction slowdown
🇪🇺 wage growth decline
🇪🇺 central bank policy
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation decline
🇺🇸 transportation services rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇪🇺 economic data weak
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation decline
🇪🇺 interest rate policy unchanged
🇺🇸 economic data improvement
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation decline
🇺🇸 job rise
→🇺🇸 rate cut expectation decline
🇪🇺 producer price decline
🇪🇺 inflation drop
🇺🇸 order rise
→🇺🇸 job rise
🇫🇷 inflation drop
🇪🇸 inflation drop
🇪🇺 inflation drop
JAN 1 – JAN 31, 2024
🇪🇺 inflation drop
🇩🇪 retail trade decline
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation
🇪🇺 interest rate steady
🇪🇺 interest rate cut expectation decline
🇪🇺 hawkish monetary policy
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation decline
🇺🇸 job market strength
→🇪🇺 rate cut expectation decline
🌍 input cost rise
→🇺🇸 inflation rise
🇪🇺 private sector decline
🇫🇷 energy cost rise
→🇫🇷 inflation rise
✉️ Track chains of events as they happen. Free.